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J Gandhara Med Dent Sci
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
How to cite this article
DIAGNOSTIC ACCURACY OF THE MODIFIED CT SEVERITY INDEX FOR SEVERE ACUTE
PANCREATITIS USING THE REVISED ATLANTA CLASSIFICATION AS REFERENCE STANDARD
Syeda Najia Hussain
1
, Anisa Kalsoom
2
, Mashal Tanveer Raja
1
, Faryal Asmat
3
, Syed Ahmad Ali Husnain Naqvi
4
Husnain SN, Kalsoom A, Raja MT,
Asmat F, Naqvi SAAH. Diagnostic
Accuracy of the Modied CT Severity
Index for Severe Acute Pancreatitis
Using the Revised Atlanta Classication
as Reference Standard. J
Dent Sci. 2026;13(4):36-40.
Date Submission: 23-06-2026
Date Revised: 06-09-2026
Date Acceptance: 07-09-2026
2
Assistant Professor, Department of
Diagnostic Radiology, Fauji
Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi
3
Associate Professor, Department of
Diagnostic Radiology, Fauji
Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi
4
Medical Officer, Department of
Diagnostic Radiology, Fauji
Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi
Correspondence
1
Syeda Najia Hussain, Post Graduate
Trainee, Department of Diagnostic
Radiology, Fauji Foundation Hospital,
Rawalpindi
:
+92-326-5660027
:
najiarizvi1214@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES
This study aimed to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the Modied
Computed Tomography Severity Index (mCTSI) for identifying severe acute
pancreatitis using the Revised Atlanta Classication as the reference standard.
METHODOLOGY
This cross-sectional validation study included 155 adults aged 20–60 years
with acute pancreatitis who underwent contrast-enhanced computed
tomography at Fauji Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi, from 22 February to
22 May 2025. mCTSI was calculated from computed tomography performed
after 48 hours of admission, while severe disease, by Revised Atlanta
Classication, was dened by persistent organ failure for more than 48 hours
using the Modied Marshall score. Diagnostic performance was evaluated
using a 2×2 table and reported as sensitivity, specicity, pred ictive values, and
overall accuracy.
RESULTS
Mean age was 42.8 ± 11.6 years, and 94 (60.6%) patients were male. Severe
acute pancreatitis was classied in 46 (29.7%) patients by mCTSI and in 41
(26.5%) by Revised Atlanta criteria. There were 37 true-positive, 105 true-
negative, nine false-positive, and four false-negative results. mCTSI
demonstrated sensitivity of 90.2%, specicity of 92.1%, positive predictive
value of 80.4%, negative predictive value of 96.3%, and overall diagnostic
accuracy of 91.6%. Performance remained broadly consistent across age, sex,
and symptom-duration strata.
CONCLUSION
mCTSI showed high diagnostic accuracy for severe acute pancreatitis
compared with the Revised Atlanta Classication. Its high negative predictive
value supports its usefulness for radiological risk stratication when
interpreted alongside clinical assessment and serial organ-failure evaluation
and may support timely escalation of monitoring and supportive clinical care
decisions.
KEYWORDS: Acute Pancreatitis; Computed Tomography Severity Index;
Diagnostic Accuracy; Modied CTSI; Revised Atlanta Classication; Severe
Acute Pancreatitis
INTRODUCTION
Acute pancreatitis is a common inammatory disease of
the exocrine pancreas that causes severe abdominal pain
and multiple organ dysfunction that may lead to
pancreatic necrosis and persistent organ failure, with a
mortality of 15%.
1
Severe acute pancreatitis is found
in 23% of patients.
2
Gallstones and alcohol consumption
are the most common causes of acute pancreatitis;
hypertriglyceridemia, drugs, endoscopic retrograde
cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), trauma, obesity,
diabetes, and infection are also well-known triggers of
local and systemic inammation.
3
The pathology of
acute pancreatitis was mainly characterized by stromal
edema, vacuolar accumulation, acinar cell necrosis, and
inammatory inltration of macrophages and
neutrophils.
4
There are two classication systems of
acute pancreatitis: the Determinant-Based Classication
of Acute Pancreatitis Severity (DBC) and the Revised
Atlanta Classication 2012 (RAC). Patients who have
persistent organ failure, categorized as severe acute
pancreatitis, have the highest risk of death. Therefore, it
is important to predict and diagnose an episode of severe
acute pancreatitis.
5
Timely and accurate diagnosis is
essential to prevent morbidity and mortality associated
with acute pancreatitis. Modied Computed
Tomography Severity Index (CTSI) has 80.6%
diagnostic accuracy, 90% sensitivity, 71.6% specicity,
48.65% positive predictive value and 96% negative
predictive value, taking the Revised Atlanta
classification of acute pancreatitis as the gold standard.
6
Early assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis can
Gandhara Med
http://doi.org/10.37762/jgmds.13-4.960
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J Gandhara Med Dent Sci
October - December 2026
assist physicians in better managing the patient’s
condition and improving treatment outcomes. Currently,
several scoring systems have been developed to predict
the severity of acute pancreatitis, including Ranson’s
criteria, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health
Evaluation (APACHE) II score, and the Bedside Index
for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). However,
these methods have certain limitations in accuracy and
clinical application.
7
Contrast-enhanced computed
tomography (CECT) plays a vital role in evaluating
pancreatic inammation, necrosis, and local
complications in acute pancreatitis.
8
The Modied
Computed Tomography Severity Index (CTSI) is a
simple and widely used radiological scoring system that
combines pancreatic ndings and extrapancreatic
complications to assess disease severity.
9
Accurate
radiological prediction of severe acute pancreatitis can
facilitate early intensive management, reduce
complications, and improve patient prognosis.
10
The
rationale of this study is to determine the diagnostic
accuracy of the modied computed tomography severity
index (CTSI) score to predict severe acute pancreatitis
by keeping the revised Atlanta classication of acute
pancreatitis as the gold standard. Accurate assessment of
the severity of acute pancreatitis is crucial for guiding
treatment decisions, predicting outcomes, and managing
resources eectively. The Revised Atlanta Classication
(RAC) is widely recognized as the gold standard for
classifying the severity of acute pancreatitis, providing a
comprehensive framework that encompasses clinical,
radiological, and physiological parameters. However,
the complexity of the RAC can present challenges in its
practical application, particularly in emergency settings
where timely and accurate assessment is essential. The
modified CTSI score aims to enhance the predictive
accuracy for severe acute pancreatitis by rening the
original CTSI criteria or incorporating additional factors.
However, the eectiveness of these modications
relative to the gold standardRAChas not been
thoroughly validated. This study seeks to address this
gap by evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of the
modified CTSI score against the Revised Atlanta
Classification. Previously, no such study has been done
in our local population. The objective was to determine
the diagnostic accuracy of the modied computed
tomography severity index (CTSI) score to predict
severe acute pancreatitis by using the Revised Atlanta
classification of acute pancreatitis as the gold standard.
METHODOLOGY
This cross-sectional validation study was conducted in
the Department of Radiology, Fauji Foundation
Hospital, Rawalpindi. The submitted manuscript
specifies recruitment from 22 February 2025 to 22 May
2025. Patients were enrolled after hospital ethics and
CPSP approval(Ref No. CPSP/REU/RAD-2022-122-
3913) and written informed consent. The sample size
was calculated for diagnostic accuracy at a 95%
confidence level using an expected prevalence of severe
acute pancreatitis of 23%, anticipated sensitivity of 90%,
specificity of 71.6%, and 10% absolute precision,
yielding 155 patients. Non-probability consecutive
sampling was used. Adults aged 2060 years of either
sex who met the study denition of acute pancreatitis
were eligible. Patients with estimated glomerular
filtration rate below 45 mL/min/1.73 m, known allergy
to iodinated contrast, or in-hospital death within 48 hours
were excluded. Demographic information, sex, and
duration of symptoms were recorded. Severe acute
pancreatitis according to the Revised Atlanta
Classification was determined clinically using persistent
organ failure lasting more than 48 hours; organ failure
was dened by a Modied Marshall sco re of at least 2 in
the respiratory, renal, or cardiovascular system. The
primary physician documented the clinical reference-
standard classication. Contrast-enhanced CT was
performed after 48 hours of admission on a Toshiba
Asteion multislice scanner. Patients were scanned supine
using the submitted protocol of 5-mm section thickness,
approximately 17.2-second average scan time, 7-mm
reconstruction interval, 200 mAs, and 120 kVp. Images
were interpreted on the console by a senior radiologist
with at least ve years of post-fellowship experience.
mCTSI incorporates pancreatic inammation, necrosis,
and extrapancreatic complications and has a total range
of 010. For editorial standardization, scores of 810 are
presented as severe; this cut-o must be confirmed
against the original study proforma and dataset because
the submitted operational denition incorrectly stated
“>10.” Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics
version 25. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically
significant.
RESULTS
Among 155 patients, mean age was 42.8 11.6 years and
94 (60.6%) were male. Severe acute pancreatitis was
identified in 46 (29.7%) patients by mCTSI and in 41
(26.5%) by Revised Atlanta Classication. Cross-
classification yielded 37 true-positive, 105 true-negative,
nine false-positive, and four false-negative cases,
corresponding to sensitivity 90.2%, specicity 92.1%,
positive predictive value 80.4%, negative predictive
value 96.3%, and overall accuracy 91.6%. Diagnostic
accuracy was 89.0% in patients aged 2040 years and
93.9% in those aged 4160 years; the submitted stratied
analysis did not identify a statistically signicant age
effect. Accuracy was 92.5% among males and 90.2%
among females, again without a signicant dierence.
Diagnostic performance was also broadly similar across
symptom-duration strata. These subgroup ndings
Diagnostic Accuracy of the Modied Ct Severity Index for Severe Acute
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J Gandhara Med Dent Sci
October - December 2026
should be considered exploratory because the number of
severe cases becomes smaller after stratication.
Table 1: Baseline Characteristics of Patients
Variables
Frequency (%) / Mean ± SD
Age (years)
42.8 11.6
2040 years
73 (47.1)
4160 years 82 (52.9)
Male 94 (60.6)
Female 61 (39.4)
Duration of symptoms (days) 3.8 1.9
≤3 days 88 (56.8)
>3 days 67 (43.2)
Table 2: Distribution of Severe Acute Pancreatitis by mCTSI and
Revised Atlanta Classication
Variables
Frequency (%age)
CTSI Severe 46 (29.7)
CTSI Non-severe 109 (70.3)
Revised Atlanta Severe 41 (26.5)
Revised Atlanta Non-severe 114 (73.5)
Table 3: Cross-Classication of mCTSI Against Revised Atlanta
Classication
Diagnosis by CTSI Score Revised
Atlanta
Severe AP
Present
Revised
Atlanta
Severe AP
Absent
Total
Severe acute pancreatitis present 37 (TP) 09 (FP) 46
Severe acute pancreatitis absent 04 (FN) 105 (TN) 109
Total 41 114 155
Table 5: Stratied Diagnostic Performance by Age, Sex, and
Symptom Duration
Variable
(%) (%)
PPV
(%)
NPV
(%)
Diagnostic
(%)
p-
value
Age
Groups
2040
years
0.318
4160
years
0.318
Gender
Male
0.521
Female
0.521
Duration
of
Symptoms
≤3 days
0.447
>3 days
87.5
92.6
91.3
88.2
89.5
91.0
90.4
93.5
93.1
90.7
91.4
93.3
77.8
82.6
84.0
75.0
78.3
82.1
95.0
97.7
96.8
95.1
96.4
96.2
89.0
93.9
92.5
90.2
90.9
92.5
0.447
DISCUSSION
Acute pancreatitis has a heterogeneous clinical course,
ranging from self-limited interstitial disease to
necrotizing pancreatitis with persistent organ failure.
The Revised Atlanta Classication emphasizes
Table 4: Diagnostic Performance of mCTSI for Severe Acute
Pancreatitis
Variables
Value (%age)
Sensitivity 90.2
Specificity 92.1
Positive Predictive Value 80.4
Negative Predictive Value 96.3
Diagnostic Accuracy 91.6
Accuracy
Sensitivity Specicity
persistent organ failure as the dening feature of severe
acute pancreatitis, whereas mCTSI provides an imaging-
based summary of pancreatic and extrapancreatic
disease. These systems therefore measure related but
non-identical dimensions of severity, and their
agreement is clinically useful when it supports early
recognition of patients requiring closer monitoring. In
this study, mCTSI demonstrated sensitivity of 90.2%,
specificity of 92.1%, and overall accuracy of 91.6%
against severe disease dened by Revised Atlanta
criteria. The negative predictive value of 96.3% was
particularly high, indicating that a non-severe mCTSI
result was rarely accompanied by severe persistent organ
failure in this sample. The positive predictive value was
lower at 80.4%, reecting the expected possibility that
prominent radiological changes may occur without
meeting the clinical denition of persistent organ failure.
The ndings are broadly consistent with previous work
showing meaningful concordance between CT-based
severity indices and clinical classication.
11,12,13,14
A
study reported that modied CT severity assessment
correlated with Revised Atlanta severity and clinically
important outcomes.
14
Kumar and Griwan similarly
found mCTSI useful when compared with APACHE II,
BISAP , and Ranson-based approaches, while Padu et al.
reported close agreement between modied Atlanta
classification and mCTSI in acute gallstone
pancreatitis.
15,16
More recent diagnostic-accuracy studies
from South Asian settings have likewise supported
mCTSI as a practical radiological adjunct, although
reported performance varies with disease prevalence, CT
timing, severity threshold, and reference standard. The
37 true-positive and 105 true-negative cases accounted
for most of the cohort, while nine false-positive and four
false-negative results highlight why mCTSI should not
be used in isolation. A radiologically severe appearance
may precede, accompany, or occur without persistent
organ failure; conversely, clinically important organ
dysfunction can evolve even when CT ndings are not
maximally severe. Serial clinical assessment remains
essential, particularly during the rst several days of
admission. Stratied analyses showed broadly similar
performance across age, sex, and symptom-duration
groups, with no statistically signicant evidence of
major eect modication in the submitted analysis.
These subgroup estimates should nevertheless be
interpreted cautiously because stratication reduces the
number of severe cases within each cell. The principal
contribution of this study is therefore conrmation of
overall diagnostic performance rather than proof of
equivalence across all subgroups. The clinical severity of
acute pancreatitis cannot be understood from
morphology alone. The Revised Atlanta framework
separates mild, moderately severe, and severe disease
according to organ failure and complications, with
persistent organ failure lasting more than 48 hours
Diagnostic Accuracy of the Modied Ct Severity Index for Severe Acute
39
J Gandhara Med Dent Sci
October - December 2026
dening the severe category.
17
This distinction is
prognostically important because persistent respiratory,
renal, or cardiovascular failure is strongly associated
with adverse outcomes. mCTSI, in contrast, grades
radiological changes and extrapancreatic
complications.
18
A patient can therefore have extensive
inammatory or necrotic change on CT but recover
without persistent organ failure, while another patient
may develop clinically important organ dysfunction
before the full radiological extent becomes apparent. The
two systems should be interpreted as complementary
rather than interchangeable measures of severity. Timing
of imaging is another important consideration. Contrast-
enhanced CT is valuable for identifying pancreatic
necrosis, collections, and extrapancreatic complications,
but radiological ndings evolve. Very early CT may
underestimate necrosis, whereas later CT can more
clearly characterize local disease. In the present study,
CT was performed after 48 hours of admission,
providing a pragmatic balance between early severity
assessment and the need for evolving morphological
changes to become visible. Nevertheless, disease
progression after the index scan remains possible, and
repeated imaging should be driven by clinical
deterioration, diagnostic uncertainty, or suspected
complications rather than by the score alone. The high
specificity observed in this study indicates that most
patients classied as severe by mCTSI also had clinically
severe disease or were at high radiological risk.
However, the nine false-positive results show that
radiological severity does not necessarily imply
persistent organ failure. The four false-negative cases are
clinically more important because failure to recognize
severe disease may delay higher-level monitoring or
escalation of supportive care. For this reason, the high
negative predictive value is reassuring but cannot justify
reduced observation in a patient whose physiological
condition is worsening. Bedside variables, uid status,
oxygenation, renal function, hemodynamics,
inammatory response, and serial organ-failure scores
should remain central to management. Previous
comparative studies have reported variable diagnostic
performance for CT-based severity scoring, partly
because investigators have used dierent reference
standards, etiological subgroups, CT timings, and cut-o
definitions. Sahu et al. demonstrated correlation between
modified CT severity and Revised Atlanta grading.
14
Kumar and Griwan compared mCTSI with APACHE II,
BISAP , and Ranson scores and found that no single
system captures every clinically relevant dimension.
15
Padu et al. reported close agreement between modied
Atlanta classication and mCTSI in acute gallstone
pancreatitis.
16
The present estimates fall within this
broader literature and support the use of mCTSI as a
readily interpretable imaging tool, particularly where
rapid radiological stratication can assist
multidisciplinary triage. The study also has implications
for communication between radiology and the treating
team. A structured CT report should ideally describe the
components contributing to mCTSI rather than provide
only a total score: the degree of pancreatic inammation,
presence and proportion of necrosis, and extrapancreatic
complications should be stated explicitly. This approach
allows clinicians to understand why a patient has
received a particular severity score and facilitates
comparison with subsequent imaging. Similarly, the
Revised Atlanta category should be updated when organ
failure persists or resolves, because severity
classification is dynamic during the early course of acute
pancreatitis.
LIMITATIONS
The study was performed at a single tertiary-care
hospital and included a relatively small severe-disease
subgroup, limiting precision and generalizability.
Exclusion of patients who died within 48 hours may
introduce spectrum bias by removing some of the most
severe early presentations. Computed tomography was
performed after 48 hours, but pancreatic necrosis and
local complications can continue to evolve. One
experienced radiologist reported image interpretation;
interobserver reliability was not assessed. Receiver-
operating-characteristic analysis and comparison with
alternative clinical scores were not undertaken.
CONCLUSIONS
mCTSI demonstrated high sensitivity, specicity,
negative predictive value, and overall diagnostic
accuracy for severe acute p
ancreatitis when compared
with Revised Atlanta Classication. It is a useful
radiological adjunct for severity stratication, but should
be interpreted together with serial assessment of organ
failure and clinical status.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST:
None
FUNDING SOURCES:
None
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Syeda Najia Hussain
-
Concept & Design; Data Acquisition;
Data Analysis/Interpretation; Drafting Manuscript;
Critical
Revision;
Final Approval
Anisa Kalsoom -
Concept & Design; Data Acquisition; Data
Analysis/Interpretation; Drafting Manuscript;
Critical Revision;
Final Approval
Mashal Tanveer Raja
-
Concept & Design; Data Acquisition;
Drafting Manuscript; Critical Revision;
Final Approval
Faryal Asmat
-
Concept & Design; Data Acquisition; Data
Analysis/Interpretation; Drafting Manuscript; Critical Revision;
Supervision; Final Approval
Syed Ahmad Ali Husnain Naqvi
-
Concept & Design; Data
Acquisition; Data Analysis/Interpretation; Drafting Manuscript;
Critical Revision; Final Approval
AUTHORS CONTRIBUTION
The authors accept responsibility for all aspects of the work
and will ensure that any concerns regarding the accuracy or
integrity of any part are properly investigated and resolved.
Diagnostic Accuracy of the Modied Ct Severity Index for Severe Acute
